Convexity / Dispatches
Signal from the terminal.
Product notes, market observations, and company milestones. Written by the team building Convexity.
Broadcom is arranging the money to buy its own chips
AI bookings were over $30 billion against $10.8 billion shipped. On the same call, Broadcom announced a vehicle with Apollo and Blackstone to fund customers who its CEO says would otherwise have difficulty affording its technology.
Read the dispatchThe archive
Dell's growth is diluting its own margin
Gross margin has fallen from 23.7% to 17.8% over five quarters. In the same period one customer went from under 10% of revenue to 12%, or about $13.6 billion, and Dell does not name it.
Palo Alto is buying growth faster than it earns it
The company reports 60% ARR growth and, to its credit, discloses that organic growth was 28%. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew 6%, and the diluted share count rose by 94 million after two years of not moving at all.
Oracle is funding 2031 revenue with 2026 debt
Remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion, and the share converting within a year fell from 33% to 12%. Free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion.
The AI revenue war's biggest numbers are not revenue
Three hyperscalers reported June-quarter results dominated by marking up private AI labs. Alphabet's unrealized gain on one company it declines to name was $77.4 billion, three times Google Cloud's revenue for the quarter.
Nvidia is now the credit behind its own demand
Revenue of $96.2 billion, guidance above consensus, and a 10-Q carrying $108.5 billion of guarantees the press release never mentions. Operating cash flow fell 52% in the quarter while operating income rose 19%.
Archer paid a fifth of itself for an estimate
Archer is paying 19.75% of itself and no cash. The $200 million revenue headline covers Insitu alone and rests partly on estimates, per a single footnote.
America's housing correction doesn't look like one
Median prices are up 2% on paper and falling in real terms. Builders are cutting while sellers hold out, and a third of Case-Shiller metros are already negative.
The market repriced AppLovin, not its earnings
Revenue grew 53% and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 84%. The stock fell about 20%, taking the multiple below where it sat on a fifth of today's earnings.
SanDisk's backlog is not the reason to own it
A beat-and-raise got a 3.5% haircut. SanDisk trades at 7.25 times the run rate it just guided, and the $41.6 billion of contracted revenue everyone points at is one year of revenue spread over about seven.
Palantir's moat and its ceiling are the same thing
Palantir grew 93% and stopped diluting shareholders for the first time in five years. Its international revenue grew 34%. Both facts have the same cause, and only one of them is in the release.
Bloom Energy's best quarter is its least convincing
A record billion-dollar quarter, and an amended 10-Q filed the next morning showing 73% of it came from one counterparty. Contracted future revenue rose by $1.5 million.
T1 Energy: right company, wrong time, not enough money
Every dollar of T1's 2025 gross profit was a Section 45X credit, and then some. Its only customer is the company that sold it the factory. A narrower bet than the bull case describes, and one unclosed fab financing decides it.
The State of the AI Industry, Mid-2026
A long, data-heavy field report on where AI actually sits at mid-2026: capabilities, the money, compute and power, adoption reality, the competitive board, governance, labor, and the bubble question.
Introducing Convexity
One terminal for primary-source market data, an AI research layer, and the tools to act on both. Here is what we are building and why.